The Effects of In-Utero Shocks on Cognitive Test Scores: Evidence from Droughts in India

We use cognitive test scores to investigate the impact of in-utero drought exposure on the human capital of children, exploiting fluctuations in monsoon rainfall over time and across districts in rural India. Our data is unique in that we have four distinct measures each for literacy and numeracy for close to 3 million children, who are either currently enrolled, have dropped out or never enrolled in school. We find that children exposed to drought in-utero score significantly worse on math and reading tests. Experiencing a drought in-utero is associated with being 2.6 percentage points less likely to recognize numbers from 1-10 and 1.2 percentage points less likely to do a simple subtraction problem (from a baseline percent of 53.9% and 61.6%, respectively). We find that the negative impacts on math are largest for in utero shocks, diminished for shocks before age two, and stop being negative at age two. While the magnitude of the effects on reading tend to be smaller, they are still negative and statistically significant. We then explore some potential mechanisms and provide evidence that these children are less likely to be on track in school and less likely to ever enrol. JEL Codes: I2, I1, J1 ∗We would like to thank Ed Glaeser, Larry Katz, Michael Kremer, and Emily Oster for helpful comments.